Trial & error - often used - but also successful?

Trial and error - always the «method» of choice for new launches and innovations. There is no need for prior testing on the market. This is faster and cheaper in advance. But what is the cost of such a procedure if one includes the possibility of failure in the considerations?

A recent example has once again shown me the criteria according to which product launches are implemented. Not all of them, by any means, but apparently quite a few. A brief explanation of the case: Over the last few years, a company has developed an idea for a new product and, as a result, a product concept which, in the opinion of those responsible, has good market prospects. According to internal opinion, the concept represents an innovative solution and is now to be implemented. Questions of customer experience (UX) or an evaluation by customers have not taken place at this time.

What pleases the management does not necessarily have to be well received on the market

In the course of the discussion regarding the launch, there is also a debate about whether this product concept should be checked on the market before the launch. The company discusses for weeks, even months, which is the right way to go - i.e. pro or contra market check. Above all, the costs of an ex ante market check cause marketing managers considerable headaches, and: Such a procedure costs time and one wants to finally push ahead with the market entry.

Instead of making savings, greater risks are taken

Finally, management decides to dispense with market potential analyses, consumer insights into the product concept and checking the fit for specific target groups before launching the product ... and now comes the justification: "We're going to launch the product anyway, so we don't need all that and we'll save ourselves a lot of money and time too".

This kind of reasoning makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up. Of course, the company is big, has a lot of experience in the market and is financially potent. The company knows the product, but it doesn't know which target groups to address, nor how these target groups, which it doesn't know, are to be made aware of the new product through communication. It is also unknown which benefit arguments are to be emphasized to the consumers via marketing and sales. So much for this case.

Mehr als 90% aller Neulancierungen scheitern

At a time when more than 90% of all new launches fail and consumers can choose from a wide range of competing offers, I consider such an approach to be negligent. Millions are invested in product development, marketing, communication and sales - but there is too little or no knowledge of the outside factors. Nor do they know how to adequately work «the market».

It is of course easier to think inside out instead of outside in

Even if the new product is well thought out and designed in management's opinion, the probability of failure in implementation is very high. Why? Because an inside-out driven argumentation does not look at the market and the competition enough, or not at all. Instead, for whatever reason, the company is convinced that the market and potential customers will accept whatever solution is presented to them.

But in my opinion, those days are definitely over. I keep hearing the story of how Apple, without ever having conducted a market test, has successfully placed the most amazing products on the markets and delighted its customers. On the other hand, I have also heard that Apple has meticulously tested its solutions before every roll-out. I don't know if that's true, but I can well imagine it.

Trial and error - most of the time you are wrong

I am convinced that in today's world, a launch that starts from incomplete, outdated or incorrect assumptions about consumers and competition will fail in most cases. It does, the percentage of flops with more than 90% shows it. But then the resources invested are many times higher than what it would have cost to at least evaluate the most important dimensions for a possible failure and to take countermeasures in time - before the launch. Trial and error in honor, but you have to know when it is the right thing to do. In the case described above, I don't believe it is.

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